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Molecular Biology and Evolution 19:101-109 (2002)
© 2002 Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution

Estimating Absolute Rates of Molecular Evolution and Divergence Times: A Penalized Likelihood Approach

Michael J. Sanderson

Section of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis

Rates of molecular evolution vary widely between lineages, but quantification of how rates change has proven difficult. Recently proposed estimation procedures have mainly adopted highly parametric approaches that model rate evolution explicitly. In this study, a semiparametric smoothing method is developed using penalized likelihood. A saturated model in which every lineage has a separate rate is combined with a roughness penalty that discourages rates from varying too much across a phylogeny. A data-driven cross-validation criterion is then used to determine an optimal level of smoothing. This criterion is based on an estimate of the average prediction error associated with pruning lineages from the tree. The methods are applied to three data sets of six genes across a sample of land plants. Optimally smoothed estimates of absolute rates entailed 2- to 10-fold variation across lineages.


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Biol LettHome page
P. G.P Ericson, C. L Anderson, T. Britton, A. Elzanowski, U. S Johansson, M. Kallersjo, J. I Ohlson, T. J Parsons, D. Zuccon, and G. Mayr
Diversification of Neoaves: integration of molecular sequence data and fossils
Biol Lett, December 22, 2006; 2(4): 543 - 547.
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Syst BiolHome page
D. C. Marshall, C. Simon, and T. R. Buckley
Accurate Branch Length Estimation in Partitioned Bayesian Analyses Requires Accommodation of Among-Partition Rate Variation and Attention to Branch Length Priors
Syst Biol, December 1, 2006; 55(6): 993 - 1003.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USAHome page
S. G. Brady, T. R. Schultz, B. L. Fisher, and P. S. Ward
From the Cover: Evaluating alternative hypotheses for the early evolution and diversification of ants
PNAS, November 28, 2006; 103(48): 18172 - 18177.
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USAHome page
R. H. Crozier
Charting uncertainty about ant origins
PNAS, November 28, 2006; 103(48): 18029 - 18030.
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Mol Biol EvolHome page
T. J. Near, S. K. Parker, and H. W. Detrich III
A Genomic Fossil Reveals Key Steps in Hemoglobin Loss by the Antarctic Icefishes
Mol. Biol. Evol., November 1, 2006; 23(11): 2008 - 2016.
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PALAIOSHome page
E. J. HERMSEN and J. R. HENDRICKS
THE HIERARCHY OF TIME
Palaios, October 1, 2006; 21(5): 403 - 405.
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Syst BiolHome page
N. Wahlberg
That Awkward Age for Butterflies: Insights from the Age of the Butterfly Subfamily Nymphalinae (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)
Syst Biol, October 1, 2006; 55(5): 703 - 714.
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Syst BiolHome page
C. Yesson and A. Culham
Phyloclimatic Modeling: Combining Phylogenetics and Bioclimatic Modeling
Syst Biol, October 1, 2006; 55(5): 785 - 802.
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Mol Biol EvolHome page
A. B. Smith, D. Pisani, J. A. Mackenzie-Dodds, B. Stockley, B. L. Webster, and D. T. J. Littlewood
Testing the Molecular Clock: Molecular and Paleontological Estimates of Divergence Times in the Echinoidea (Echinodermata)
Mol. Biol. Evol., October 1, 2006; 23(10): 1832 - 1851.
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Am. J. Bot.Home page
D. M. Crayn, M. Rossetto, and D. J. Maynard
Molecular phylogeny and dating reveals an Oligo-Miocene radiation of dry-adapted shrubs (former Tremandraceae) from rainforest tree progenitors (Elaeocarpaceae) in Australia
Am. J. Botany, September 1, 2006; 93(9): 1328 - 1342.
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Am. J. Bot.Home page
Z.-L. Nie, H. Sun, P. M. Beardsley, R. G. Olmstead, and J. Wen
Evolution of biogeographic disjunction between eastern Asia and eastern North America in Phryma (Phrymaceae)
Am. J. Botany, September 1, 2006; 93(9): 1343 - 1356.
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Mol Biol EvolHome page
S. L. Pereira and A. J. Baker
A Mitogenomic Timescale for Birds Detects Variable Phylogenetic Rates of Molecular Evolution and Refutes the Standard Molecular Clock
Mol. Biol. Evol., September 1, 2006; 23(9): 1731 - 1740.
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Syst BiolHome page
J. Pons, T. G. Barraclough, J. Gomez-Zurita, A. Cardoso, D. P. Duran, S. Hazell, S. Kamoun, W. D. Sumlin, and A. P. Vogler
Sequence-Based Species Delimitation for the DNA Taxonomy of Undescribed Insects
Syst Biol, August 1, 2006; 55(4): 595 - 609.
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Syst BiolHome page
H. Won and S. S. Renner
Dating Dispersal and Radiation in the Gymnosperm Gnetum (Gnetales)--Clock Calibration When Outgroup Relationships Are Uncertain
Syst Biol, August 1, 2006; 55(4): 610 - 622.
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Mol Biol EvolHome page
M. Kullberg, M. A. Nilsson, U. Arnason, E. H. Harley, and A. Janke
Housekeeping Genes for Phylogenetic Analysis of Eutherian Relationships
Mol. Biol. Evol., August 1, 2006; 23(8): 1493 - 1503.
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Mol Biol EvolHome page
S. S. Jakob and F. R. Blattner
A Chloroplast Genealogy of Hordeum (Poaceae): Long-Term Persisting Haplotypes, Incomplete Lineage Sorting, Regional Extinction, and the Consequences for Phylogenetic Inference
Mol. Biol. Evol., August 1, 2006; 23(8): 1602 - 1612.
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Proc R Soc BHome page
S. G Brady, S. Sipes, A. Pearson, and B. N Danforth
Recent and simultaneous origins of eusociality in halictid bees
Proc R Soc B, July 7, 2006; 273(1594): 1643 - 1649.
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ANN BOT (LOND)Home page
C. RYDIN, K. R. PEDERSEN, P. R. CRANE, and E. M. FRIIS
Former Diversity of Ephedra (Gnetales): Evidence from Early Cretaceous Seeds from Portugal and North America
Ann. Bot., July 1, 2006; 98(1): 123 - 140.
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Phil Trans R Soc BHome page
A. J Roger and L. A Hug
The origin and diversification of eukaryotes: problems with molecular phylogenetics and molecular clock estimation
Phil Trans R Soc B, June 29, 2006; 361(1470): 1039 - 1054.
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